Texas voters head to the polls today in a high-stakes Senate runoff with consequences far beyond the state’s borders. Four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a bruising Republican primary contest, and President Donald Trump’s late endorsement of Paxton reshaped the entire final week of the race. Polls close across most of Texas at 8 p.m. Eastern time tonight. The winner will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election — and national analysts are watching closely.

A Costly Republican Civil War

Neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the March 3 primary. Cornyn finished narrowly ahead at roughly 42 percent; Paxton trailed at about 41 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt took 13 percent and did not advance to the runoff. The months since have brought a flood of attack ads, record spending, and bitter intraparty feuding that has exposed real fault lines inside the Texas GOP.

Spending in the race has been historic. Satellite groups supporting Cornyn poured tens of millions of dollars into the state. The Lone Star Freedom Project alone spent roughly $18 million backing the incumbent. Cornyn’s allies argue he represents the safest path to holding the seat, pointing to his relationships with party leaders and donors built over two decades in Washington.

Paxton’s camp counters that Texas voters want a fighter who is squarely aligned with the MAGA movement. Cornyn has repeatedly highlighted Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by the Texas House — though the state Senate subsequently acquitted Paxton on every charge. That history has remained one of the most contested battlegrounds of the entire race.

Trump’s Late Endorsement Reshapes the Race

Trump waited months before weighing in. Last Tuesday, he endorsed Paxton in a lengthy Truth Social post, calling him a “true MAGA Warrior” and criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently loyal during difficult moments. The endorsement landed with force.

Cornyn pushed back during a Lubbock campaign stop, telling supporters that Texas voters — not Washington — would decide the race. Vice President J.D. Vance defended the White House’s decision, saying Paxton’s loyalty during tough political moments earned him the president’s support.

What the Runoff Means for November

The general election stakes could not be higher for either party. Republicans hold a slim 53-47 majority in the Senate. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly four decades. But Democrats see a genuine opportunity this cycle.

Talarico, who defeated progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March Democratic primary, is running as a moderate problem-solver focused on affordability and education. Trump’s approval rating has slipped in recent Texas polling, and Cornyn allies warn that Paxton’s legal history could put the seat in play.

For context: a 2015 securities fraud indictment against Paxton was dropped through a pre-trial diversion deal in 2024. The 2023 impeachment centered on charges of bribery and dereliction of duty. Paxton calls those episodes long since settled. His critics call them disqualifying for federal office.

A Pattern of Trump-Backed Primary Wins

The Texas Senate runoff is the latest test of Trump’s primary muscle in the 2026 cycle. Every contested GOP primary now plays out under his shadow. Trump-aligned candidates ousted Sen. Cassidy in Louisiana less than two weeks ago and Rep. Massie fell a week later. Each result has emboldened the president and rattled remaining Republican incumbents who are watching the Texas outcome very carefully.

Trump’s team has signaled he will continue targeting members he views as insufficiently loyal. Tonight’s result will guide that strategy through the summer primary calendar — and it will send a message about whether establishment Republicans have any remaining room to operate inside the modern party.

Looking Ahead

Tonight’s outcome sets the tone for the rest of the 2026 election cycle. A Paxton win would confirm Trump’s dominance over the modern Republican Party. A Cornyn upset would give establishment Republicans some renewed breathing room. Either way, the ripple effects will be felt in competitive Senate races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. AccuPay will continue tracking key developments through the November general election.